What’s the truth? Prediction Markets
Geoff Mann, 22 October 2026
In the days leading up to Donald Trump’s State of the Union address in February, the prediction market Kalshi set up a trade, a wager in all but name, on the Yes/No proposition that the disgraced Republican ex-congressman George Santos would attend. The larger the number of people who bet ‘Yes’ (or, in the language the prediction markets prefer, bought ‘Yes’...





