What’s the truth?
Geoff Mann: Prediction Markets, 22 October 2026
“... I n the days leading up to Donald Trump’s State of the Union address in February, the prediction market Kalshi set up a trade, a wager in all but name, on the Yes/No proposition that the disgraced Republican ex-congressman George Santos would attend. The larger the number of people who bet ‘Yes’ (or, in the language the prediction markets prefer, bought ‘Yes’ contracts), the more the value of the bet would rise; if they bet ‘No’, it would fall ... ”