Neck and Neck and Neck

A couple of days to let the second debate percolate, and the signs are that it didn’t have much impact. Betfair shows a negligible improvement in the prospects of the Tory party: £100 on a Tory win would bring you £162 as opposed to £165 before the debate. £100 on a hung Parliament would bring you £75 as opposed to £73. If you ask the public directly, they seem to agree with that. The running average of polls at UK Polling Report has the Tories on 33 per cent, the Lib Dems on 27, and Labour on 29, a result which would leave Labour the largest party, short of a majority by 59 votes. On the third hand, the spread betting, which always skews Tory, has the Tories on 308-313 seats, a narrow improvement (of one seat) from before the debate. That implies a hung Parliament, with the Tories the largest party but between 24 and 34 seats short of a majority. From this position, with 11 campaigning days to go, it could be settled by one decisive move or (more likely) one big cock-up.