Normalisation of Deviance

Charles Haddon-Cave’s Nimrod Review: An Independent Review into the Broader Issues Surrounding the Loss of the RAF Nimrod MR2 Aircraft XV230 in Afghanistan in 2006 was laid before Parliament and published by the Stationery Office on 28 October. Two days later it was out of print. The Review was not a Public Inquiry with statutory powers. It sat in Ministry of Defence premises. Some staff were seconded from the ministry. But its conclusions, and its naming of the incompetent, leave no doubts about its independence.

The accident to XV230 was avoidable.

My report identifies manifold shortcomings in the UK airworthiness and in-service support regime, and reveals matters which are as surprising as they are disturbing.

The Nimrod Safety Case took a total of nearly four years to produce (April 2001 to March 2005) and cost in excess of £400,000… [It] was a lamentable job from start to finish. It was riddled with errors. It missed the key dangers. Its production is a story of incompetence, complacency and cynicism.

The Nimrod Safety Case process was fatally undermined by a general malaise: a widespread assumption by those involved that the Nimrod was ’safe anyway’ (because it had successfully flown for 30 years).

Haddon-Cave looked at the organisational causes of other major accidents, notably the loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia, and found strong similarities. Both had long incubation periods. Strong signals of problems had been identified and recorded, but analysed away. Diane Vaughan in her study of the Challenger Space Shuttle disaster coined the phrase ‘normalisation of deviance’ to categorise this phenomenon: for Challenger it was a fault in the O-rings in the solid booster rockets; for Columbia it was foam insulation coming loose. These were judged – wrongly – to be acceptable risks.

The normalisation of deviance is not peculiar to aviation or space travel. The categorisation of escalator fires on the London Underground as ’smoulderings’ before the King’s Cross fire is another example.

I chaired a public inquiry into the 2005 South Wales E.coli O157 outbreak (157 cases, mostly in schoolchildren, with one death). There was a normalisation of deviance. In 1994 the abattoir that supplied contaminated meat to the butcher responsible for the outbreak had an unannounced independent inspection. Its hygiene scored 11 out of 100, the worst ever recorded in Britain (scores less than 66 were deemed to be unacceptably low). A recommendation went up the line that it should be closed. But it was not. Months and years went past. There was no significant improvement. Deficiencies were recorded, but not rectified. The same independent inspector visited in April 2005. He concluded that the problems he found looked remarkably similar to those in 1994. The outbreak occurred in September. Like the MOD, the Meat Hygiene Service had failed.

Food hygiene is assessed using a system known as HACCP: hazard analysis and critical control points. Haddon-Cave’s description of what he found with Nimrod – a lamentable job, riddled with errors, missing the key dangers – applies to the butcher’s perfectly. His HACCP said things that were untrue (for example that the butcher had a ‘number of quality awards for excellent service and hygiene standards’), it made claims that were physically impossible to achieve (about the speed of cooling of meat), and it did not consider the processing of bought-in products (errors in their handling caused the outbreak). The environmental health officers who inspected the butcher failed to spot these deficiencies, just like the wing commander (since promoted to air commodore) who signed off the Nimrod safety case, having ‘failed to check carefully and query what he was signing’.

Claude Lévi-Strauss

From ‘Slate’, 9 February 1999:

Last week I went to Claude Lévi-Strauss’s 90th birthday party at the Collège de France. It seemed an unremarkable occasion at first. Though the courtyard of the Collège de France is fittingly grand for the republic’s premiere scholarly institution, the rooms inside are meanly proportioned and shabby. The three dozen or so academics in attendance looked dreary and moth-eaten the way academics do. There was a sprinkling of journalists, but no cameras or microphones. Fortified by a couple of glasses of indifferent burgundy, I obtained an introduction to Lévi-Strauss, who rose with difficulty from his chair and shook my hand tremulously. The conversation went poorly, owing both to my shaky French and to my lack of conviction that the nonagenarian I was talking to could actually be Claude Lévi-Strauss. More »

Wobbly

Let me say immediately that I don’t doubt that Planet Earth is on its way out. I couldn’t be more gloomy about its future. I’m also not much of a fan of Clive James, in fact I was involved in an angry lunchtime argument with him on the subject of Iraq and what he called ‘the triumph of Democracy’ the last time I saw him, some years ago.

I am, on the other hand, constantly interested in how I can know whether what I read and hear is reliable. I couldn’t for example put my hand on my heart and say that my belief that climate change is irreversible is based on anything very much more substantial than a tendency to trust in the green and the left, and the fact that I know from history and experience that human beings are inclined to do what they want to do until they use up the ability to do it. I’m certainly not equipped to verify the scientific arguments for or against climate change. I can’t do the maths. More »

In a Villanelle Mood

In a villanelle mood, Colm Tóibín started the following poem. The immediate context was a remark by a colleague that our students (and indeed most of our colleagues) don’t seem to get excited about theory the way they used to. The title and first stanza are Colm’s, and therefore so are the rhymes. You can tell from the word ‘skid’ that I’m running out of options.

A Structuralist Lament

They don’t thrill at the sign as we once did.
They see Saussure as one more dead white male
Trapped between the ego and the id.

The Elementary Structures all are hid,
No Lévi-Strauss is heard to tell the tale:
They don’t thrill at the sign as we once did.

Semiotics had its day but flipped its lid,
Got lost inside the advertising whale,
Or trapped between the ego and the id.

Alas, poor Barthes, who cares for Ess and Zed?
When every morpheme’s up for sale
They don’t thrill at the sign as we once did.

And as for ‘Theory’ writ large, heaven forbid,
There’s nothing left but cakes and ale
Trapped between the ego and the id.

Myth and symbol slide and skid,
It’s lost for good, the fine old trail.
They don’t thrill at the sign as we once did,
Trapped as we were between the ego and the id.

Going Dutch

I was just watching a news item on Sky. It was a programme about TNT, the Dutch national mail company that has recently been ‘liberalised’. This is the company that earlier in the year Peter Mandelson suggested as a possible buyer for the Royal Mail.

Postmen over there are losing their jobs. Fixed contracts are being replaced by ‘flexible’ contracts, full-time postmen by ‘freelance’ postmen. People who have been doing the same round for 31 years are being got rid of and made to reapply for their jobs, but on a freelance basis.

The Dutch minister responsible for the change was being interviewed. ‘As consumers,’ he said, ‘and especially from business to consumer, there is more flexibility. Competition has made mail companies modernise, and that’s where consumers profit from.’

You have to pay attention to the words here. More »

Trick or Treat?

One of the many silly books being published for Halloween is The Horror Film Quiz Book. The questions are organised by film, though it might have been as well to categorise them according to difficulty. They range from the absurdly easy – ‘who directed the original Psycho?’ or ‘For his main female lead roles Hitchcock chose girls with what hair colour?’ – to the utterly impossible for anyone except the most committed horror nerd: ‘What type of chainsaw was used in Texas Chainsaw Massacre?’ Winter evening fun for all the family.

The Mobile Phone War

In early October the Palestinian Authority dropped its draft resolution calling for a discussion of the Goldstone Report in the UN Security Council or the International Criminal Court. The 575-page report was, by all accounts, one of the most exhaustive and withering studies to date of Israeli war crimes. It also chastised the PA’s rival, Hamas, for firing rockets at Israeli civilians. The PA, which looked on at the Gaza war from distant Ramallah, would seem to have nothing to lose in light of the report’s findings, and everything to gain. Yet the PA’s chairman, Mahmoud Abbas, was persuaded that going forward with its resolution would give the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, a pretext to avoid resuming negotiations – and the resolution would, in any case, be vetoed by the Obama administration. More »

I Get More out of Men

When I was growing up in County Wexford the highest ambition you could have was to play hurling for your county. I remember being taken as a nine year old to watch my older brother play for Wexford in Croke Park in Dublin, which is the national stadium for Gaelic games. Even as I sat there watching my brother’s prowess, I knew that I would never match up to him, that I was a wimp and would always be one. Hurlers and players of Gaelic football were heroes; they were role models and figures of enormous moral authority and seriousness. They put their whole lives into sport without earning a penny. It was done for love, for duty, for patriotism; it was done for your club and county. They were towers of masculine strength. The hurlers especially were lithe and fit. To be a player of Gaelic games was to place you beyond sex; and this meant that they were straight, or were supposed to be. A gay hurler was something that happened only in your dreams. It was pure impossibility. More »

Corporate Anonymity

The Economist’s blog on American politics is called ‘Democracy in America’, its Asian blog ‘Banyan’ and its European blog ‘Charlemagne’ – names with such earnest symbolic authority that you might think for a second that the Economist had launched a fleet of new aircraft carriers. All Economist blogs are unsigned, which is in keeping with a publication that prides itself on corporate anonymity, but many entries are written in the first person. For example, four recent posts include the following sentences:

Yesterday my colleague posted on the partisanship of Fox News, suggesting we shouldn’t take the network seriously.

For the first time so far in my career, I briefly fell for a hoax.

I’ve long believed that Mongolia, among wild countries, is the Last Best Place, to steal the slogan for Montana.

I have real problems with the idea that because Europe is in relative decline, we have no right to promote our values.

Whoever he or she is, whatever their colleague may have posted and whether they fell (so unfortunately) for a hoax; regardless of what they make of Mongolia or of European ‘values’ – why is it such a struggle to say who they are? What do ‘our values’ and your ‘real problems’ mean if we don’t know who you are?

Half the Argument

It is hard to know what to make of this week’s Question Time. Most of what happened was fairly predictable. Nick Griffin was a rhetorical mess and the other members of the panel (including David Dimbleby) had clearly come well-prepared with damning quotations and facts. If Griffin hoped to advance his cause – as he believed he could – then he failed. But it is questionable whether that matters. Most of his actual and potential supporters are unlikely to watch Question Time and few people who do watch it would be converted, however brilliantly he performed. The BNP draws such strength as it has (and it is not much) from grievances which are not met by arguments from the facts. That Nick Griffin was shown to be a complete muddlehead won’t influence his supporters one way or the other.

More interesting was the behaviour of the other members of the panel. More »

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